The future is now

Everything alive, including business, has a lifecycle. Phases of rapid growth and maturity are followed by decline, whether you like it or not. Accelerated change results in a shortening of the corporate life expectancy. The average company lifespan on the S&P index was 61 years in 1958; it has now dropped to 18 years. This gives the old adage “Innovate or die” new meaning. It also changes the nature of the innovation challenge. Besides developing new products and services, it is now also a more existential one of reinventing your business. Charles Handy has framed this business innovation imperative as the need to create a second curve. The human challenge is that you should do this while you’re still successful with your current cycle, and in fact haven’t even reached the peak of your success yet. 
At our book launch we asked Lino Tedeschi, CEO of TESYA Group why he took the time to design the second curve when his business was doing so well. His answer was that this success was exactly the reason why he made the effort, quoting the Greek philosopher Epicures who stated that too much success leads to complacency. Paradoxically, the opportunity lies in what you’re not doing – while the challenge might be in what you’re already doing.

How do you know it’s time to design a second curve? You don’t. It’s easy in hindsight, but, looking forward, it’s always a challenge to predict how fast you will reach the end of your first curve. Dealing with this uncertainty means you need to be prepared for various scenarios and make room for experiments to explore what the second curve could look like. We advise you to free up time for creative sessions with your team, asking yourself “what if?” questions like “What if our current business would cease to exist – what would our future business look like?” 

Have you discussed the concept of business life cycles with your team and where you are on the curve?
Do you make time to design the future?